Technological developments bring with them many advantages, but also risks. Dealing with these presents us with major challenges. istock/AndreyPopov

Headline: Systemic Risks

In an increasingly complex world, the consequences of human interventions in the environment and society are becoming more and more unpredictable. While technological developments and societal change have brought many benefits, they are also causing unforeseeable changes, posing major challenges for our society. This interdisciplinary research group focuses on systemic risks characterised by a high degree of complexity and interconnectedness. It addresses questions such as: What opportunities and risks are associated with global transformation processes such as increasing digitalisation and the transition to a climate-friendly society? What chain reactions can systemic risks trigger in society, and how do they spread regionally, nationally and globally? What mechanisms of risk perception influence the development of systemic risks? How has the precautionary principle been applied in the European Union, and how can it be improved by involving different stakeholders?

The scientists in this research group analyse the complexity, uncertainty and ambiguity of risks characterised by interdependencies among technology, nature and society. Based on this analysis, they aim to identify common patterns and structural features of systemic risks. Their ultimate goal is to develop political instruments and transdisciplinary governance mechanisms to implement research results transformatively towards sustainable development and to reduce the negative impacts of systemic risks.

Projects

Systemic risks are both highly complex and interconnected. This project investigates interdependencies and chain reactions in order to identify possible trigger points.

This project identifies the structural features common to systemic risks like climate change, financial crises and digitalisation. The overall goal is to develop robust, enhanced governance instruments to support the management of such risks and to protect critical infrastructure and utilities.

Flooding of Elbe River, 2013: The EU aims to reduce vulnerability to extreme weather events.

The recent droughts and unprecedented floods in central Europe have disclosed our vulnerability to extreme weather events. Besides climate change as a driver of more frequent and intensifying weather extremes, demographic change and socio-economic development exacerbate severe impacts. The project "Disaster Resilience for Extreme Climate Events" (DIRECTED) aspires to foster disaster-resilient European societies with improved risk governance.

REAL_DEAL will reshape the active participation of citizens and stakeholders around the European Green Deal. This transdisciplinary project brings together researchers of deliberative democracy from a wide range of disciplines, including political science, law, sociology, and psychology. The researchers will collaborate with the EU´s largest civil society networks and NGOs to reach millions of citizens and thousands of policymakers.

Chemical hazard assessment is a key element of the European Green Deal. A group of Helmholtz researchers has developed innovative hazard indicators, which they intend to discuss with stakeholders from industry and regulatory authorities as part of this project. A result of this will be a strategy paper with concrete proposals for policymakers.

Completed Projects

The precautionary principle is supposed to prevent environmental and health risks from arising in the first place. It encourages early and forward-looking action to minimise risks, for example in the use of nanotechnologies or pesticides. Critics of the precautionary principle argue, however, that it promotes excessive caution and hinders technological innovation. The project "REconciling sCience, Innovation and Precaution through the Engagement of Stakeholders" (RECIPES) aims to analyse how the precautionary principle is applied in the European Union and improve its future application with recourse to participatory methods.

The crisis radar will help to detect systemic threats early on.

The corona pandemic has revealed the vulnerability and crisis susceptibility of complex societies that are globally highly interdependent and linked with one another. Within the scope of a study carried out by the Office of Technology Assessment at the German Bundestag, IASS researchers are making an analysis of hazards with high crisis potential.

Plastics are widely used in daily life, but also have adverse effects on the environment. The ENSURE research consortium seeks to develop innovative biodegradable plastics. IASS scientists will investigate factors influencing the use of plastics to contribute to more sustainable consumption patterns.

Despite the adoption of advanced waste disposal and recycling systems, plastic continues to enter the environment through littering, illegal dumping, and the use of waste-based fertilisers in farming. Researchers at the IASS are studying the issue of plastic pollution and how plastics are purchased, used, and disposed. Their findings will inform the development of proposals for transdisciplinary solutions.

Identifying win-win strategies for green growth: the Green-Win project at the IASS is working to break down critical barriers between green businesses and green investors.

Is green growth possible? What climate protection strategies bring both environmental and economic benefits? What business models meet the criteria for green growth and under what conditions can they flourish? What hinders their development? These are the main questions addressed by the Green-Win project.

Brokers at the Paris stock exchange monitor markets in Belgium, France and Portugal. The DOLFINS project conducts research for the development of models and scenarios for a sustainable financial system.

The global financial crisis brought our financial system to the verge of collapse. How can we make it both more resilient and equitable? The DOLFINS project develops models and scenarios for a sustainable global financial system.

Team

Experts from politics, business, science and civil society can and should be involved in efforts to identify, analyse, and reduce risks relating to climate change. Prof. Ortwin Renn outlines the four stages of the risk governance framework developed by the International Risk Council’s (IRGC): from a pre-assessment and appraisal of risks and concerns, through to the evaluation and the implementation of risk governance.

The European Union faces a growing number of complex, overlapping, transboundary crises, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It must better prepare for and respond to them, according to the scientific and ethical opinion delivered to the EU Commission at the European Parliament in Strasbourg on Nov. 22, 2022.

Systemic risks such as climate change, cybercrime, pandemics and social inequality are complex and interconnected. Accordingly, managing such risks requires effective organisational structures and processes. A new special issue of the journal Risk Analysis presents theoretically robust, evidence-based approaches for assessing and managing risk. The special issue is edited by IASS Director Ortwin Renn and Research Group Head Pia-Johanna Schweizer.

While the physical tipping points of the climate system have been the focus of substantial research, social tipping points, in which societies succeed or fail in adapting to climatic change, have received little coverage. An international team including researcher Pia-Johanna Schweizer from the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS) recently published a study that explores social tipping points in connection with climate adaptation and systemic risks.

The EU Horizon 2020 project “RECIPES” has published its final policy brief. A team from the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS) led by Pia-Johanna Schweizer was involved in the project and examined how participatory approaches can support the application of the precautionary principle. This issue is explored in depth in a chapter of the project’s report “Guidance on the application of the precautionary principle in the EU”.

Cobalt mining in the Democratic Republic of Congo: better regulation is needed.

Metals such as cobalt and lithium play a vital role in the energy transition and are used in the manufacturing of solar panels, wind turbines, and electric vehicles. However, the mining of these raw materials is environmentally harmful, working conditions are often hazardous, and local communities are frequently excluded from the planning and operation of mines. In a new article, an international research team led by IASS Scientific Director Ortwin Renn describes how current mining practices could be improved and the sourcing and management of metals better aligned with the goals of sustainable development.

Sustainability research must combine different forms of knowledge to deliver on its promise

What approach must sustainability research take in order to sucessfully advance the transformation toward a sustainable future? In a new publication, IASS Scientific Director Ortwin Renn outlines an approach that integrates different research concepts.

Disinfection in a warehouse: the Corona pandemic is impacting many areas of life.

The systemic and uncertain risks facing the world today can have cascading impacts across systems and sectors. To better understand and respond to these risks, an integrated perspective that incorporates the inherently complex nature of climate-related hazards, vulnerability, exposure and impacts is needed. This insight is at the centre of a new briefing note co-authored by IASS research group leader Pia-Johanna Schweizer and published by the International Science Council, the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Risk Knowledge Action Network.

Many people would like to use less plastic but struggle to overcome barriers to change.

Many people would like to reduce their consumption of plastic packaging, but face barriers such as the limited availability of unpackaged goods and scarcity of zero-waste stores. An IASS Policy Brief presents three strategic policy recommendations that could help reduce the consumption of packaging in everyday life.

For agriculture, applications of genetic engineering offer a variety of opportunities and risks.

Agriculture is a large but controversial area of gene technology. What opportunities and risks for sustainability are associated with applications like resistance breeding and genetic engineering to improve nutritional quality? IASS Director Ortwin Renn examines these issues in the “Fifth Gene Technology Report” of the Berlin-Brandenburg Academy of Sciences and Humanities. He also recommends new forms of dialogue that can promote the responsible use of “green gene technology”.

Australien in Flammen Brände Waldbrände Känguruh

Systemic risks are often contradictorily assessed and underestimated by society, leading to delayed policy action. How can science help? A team from the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS) has developed recommendations for policymakers and academics working on the governance of systemic risks such as climate change.

The coronavirus pandemic has created enormous social, economic and political challenges worldwide. The demand for immediate action often pushed climate policy ambitions into the background. Scientists from the University of Waterloo (Canada), together with Ortwin Renn from the IASS and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber of PIK have developed a new operational approach that provides guidance to decision-makers seeking to reconcile the demands of competing goals, including effective climate protection.

Zero-waste stores contribute to a reduction in plastic waste.

Plastic waste is considered one of the biggest environmental problems of our time. IASS researchers surveyed consumers in Germany about their use of plastic packaging. Their research reveals that fundamental changes in infrastructures and lifestyles, as well as cultural and economic transformation processes, are needed to make zero-waste shopping the norm.

Digitalisation can support transitions towards a more sustainable society if technologies and processes are designed in line with suitable criteria. This requires a systemic focus on the risks and benefits of digital technologies across the three dimensions of sustainable development: the environment, society, and the economy. This is the conclusion of a study prepared by a team of researchers at the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS) in Potsdam. Applying this precautionary approach to digitalisation requires the active involvement of developers, users, and regulators.

One of the RECIPES case studies discusses emerging gene editing technologies (CRISPR-Cas9).

The precautionary principle aims to anticipate and prevent hazards to the environment and human health from arising. It plays an important role in environmental and consumer protection and in the regulation of domestic markets, for example in the approval of products and processes. The challenge of reconciling this principle with efforts to foster innovation is the subject of ongoing debate in European politics and business communities. Researchers at the IASS have now presented their findings to the European Commission.

The challenges thrown up by the ripple effect: when systemic risks spread from one area to another.

Systemic risks like climate change, cyber security and pandemics are characterised by high complexity, uncertainty, ambiguity, and effects beyond the system in which they originate. That’s why novel research approaches and regulatory measures are indispensable for the evaluation and management of these risks. An interdisciplinary team around IASS Scientific Director Ortwin Renn recently published a paper on this subject, which appears as the first article in a special issue of the journal “Risk Analysis” edited by Renn and IASS Research Group Leader Pia-Johanna Schweizer.

The British House of Lords recently invited the Scientific Director of the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS) Professor Ortwin Renn to speak about national risk assessment at a public hearing of the Select Committee on Risk Assessment and Risk Planning. One of the main points Renn made to the British Parliament was that in tackling a national crisis, governments need to show that they are working in the interests of the common good.

Good governance is vital to ensuring that the digital transition is sustainable and equitable.

How can digitalisation serve sustainable development? At the Digital Summit hosted by the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy, Ortwin Renn presented a paper outlining concrete steps to improve the sustainability of the digital transition.

In order to slow down the spread of Covid-19, air traffic has been severely restricted worldwide. Berlin-Tegel Airport was closed to limit financial losses.

Although there were early warnings of an exponentially growing pandemic, most policymakers around the world were unprepared and reluctant to act when Covid-19 first spread from China around the world. Since then the crisis has led to unprecedented restrictions and triggered the worst recession since the Second World War. In an article published in the Journal of Risk Research, Aengus Collins, Marie-Valentine Florin (both EPFL International Risk Governance Center) and IASS Scientific Director Ortwin Renn analyze the key factors and offer recommendations on how we can better prepare for future crises.

World financial system World map Stock market prices

Supply chains collapse, companies are facing bankruptcy, and mass unemployment ensues. Covid-19 has triggered a global financial crisis and is forcing states to develop rescue packages on a scale not seen before. In addition, the crisis has called into question the US dollar's hegemony and could redefine the global monetary system. A team of researchers from the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS) has developed four scenarios that show how political decisions will shape the post-Corona world.

Pearl Dykstra, EC Group of Chief Scientific Advisors; IASS Scientific Director Ortwin Renn; David Mair, European Commission, DG Joint Research Centre (JRC)

Today, more than ever, politicians rely on sound scientific advice to make decisions. The political issues that most need scientific input are those where the science itself is often complex and uncertain. A SAPEA working group under the leadership of Ortwin Renn has developed proposals for good scientific advice.

In its latest report, the European organisation SAPEA (Science Advice for Policy by European Academies) has spoken out in favour of scientific advice for policymaking. By accessing the best available knowledge, policymakers are better equipped to tackle complex global challenges such as climate change. The report was prepared by an international working group comprising representatives of all the science academies of the EU member states. The group was chaired by Ortwin Renn from the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS).

Populations are growing in disaster-prone areas around the world. The interaction of natural hazards with physical infrastructure in these regions can trigger devastating chain reactions, harming societies and their technical foundations. What can be done to address these challenges? A team at the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS) has developed a multi-level risk governance concept for natural disasters.

Energiewende Solar und Windrad - Fotograf: Pedro Salaverria

The transition to a net-zero-emission economy will create new rivalries, winners and losers. What scenarios are possible? As part of the Geopolitics and Energy Transformation 2030 (GET 2030) project at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), a team of international experts has looked into the developments that are conceivable in the international energy transition and their geopolitical implications. A team led by Professor Andreas Goldthau has commented on the results of this investigation in the journal “Nature”. In an interview with the IASS, Goldthau outlined the different possible scenarios.

Smart cities may offer more in terms of security and convenience, but data protection remains a major challenge.

Cities are more vulnerable than rural areas to a host of risks. Natural hazards like earthquakes or social risks like vandalism and crime have a far greater impact there. Moreover, the infrastructure of our cities is increasingly networked, and while smart cities may offer more in terms of security and convenience, data protection often falls by the wayside. Since risks are frequently interconnected, we need to take an integrated approach to managing them. A concept for risk governance elaborated by IASS researchers in the International Journal of Disaster Risk Science reflects just such an approach.

Prof. Dr. Rainer Quitzow

Dr. Pia-Johanna Schweizer

The Covid-19 pandemic gives us a glimpse of what climate change has in store for us concerning our globalized economic system. More research is needed to help us better understand these complex interconnections and to translate such insights into instruments to support decision-making.

Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Ortwin Renn

Adequate crisis communication is the key to managing crises like floods or the corona pandemic.

Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Ortwin Renn

According to the statistical evidence there is no doubt that vaccinations significantly benefit people across all population groups. So why is it that around 20% of people over the age of 18 are still unvaccinated in Germany?

Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Ortwin Renn

Hopes were high last Christmas that the pandemic would subside once a vaccine became available. Twelve months later, it’s obvious that this hope was premature. Roughly 20 percent of the German population have declined to be vaccinated. As the pandemic continues to take its toll, Germany is mired in a bitter debate about vaccines, vaccine mandates, and other containment measures.
Exactly why a not inconsiderable minority believes that vaccines pose a greater risk than the disease itself, and therefore refuse to be vaccinated, is puzzling to my colleagues in the field of risk governance and many others besides.

Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Ortwin Renn

The world watched with astonishment and horror at the violence unfolding in and around the Capitol as Congress convened to confirm the results of the United States' presidential election. How is it possible, one wonders, that a country whose traditions of democratic government span more than two hundred and thirty years could fall prey to such chaos?

Dr. Katharina Beyerl

Why is it that we are so slow to change our ways – despite all that we know and in the face of the unfolding climate and biodiversity crises and other socio-ecological challenges?

Dr. Katharina Beyerl

In May 2020 I was a guest on an episode of the TV show “Planet Wissen” dedicated to “Pathways out of the Plastic Flood”. It was an opportunity for me to talk about the preliminary results of our work in the ENSURE project on “Plastic: Social Perception and Behaviour Patterns”. The journalist Andrea Wojtkowiak had sent me a few questions in advance, but – as is so often the case – there wasn’t enough time to discuss everything in detail during the programme itself. So for all those interested in the issue of plastic, here are the more in-depth answers.

Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Ortwin Renn

Not since the Second World War has German society experienced a challenge to society that compares to the current global pandemic. While it is not possible at this point to fully assess the implications of this crisis for public health, the economic and society, the measures and regulations adopted to date are unprecedented in post-war German history in terms of their scope and impact on citizens across the country.

Dr. Pia-Johanna Schweizer

The coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has fundamentally changed our lives within a short period. The world is in a state of emergency and there is no end in sight. The pandemic triggered by the coronavirus is a dynamic event shaped by many different factors, in particular human behaviour (e.g. hygiene behaviour and social interactions), making it highly variable. In many countries, the number of infections is rising exponentially. In the absence of effective therapeutic drugs or a vaccine, the number of infections can only be reduced by adopting far-reaching measures to restrict direct social contact ("physical distancing").

Prof. Dr. Sophia Becker

Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Ortwin Renn

Four recommendations from the perspective of sustainability research

Events

27.05.2024 - 28.05.2024

On May 27-28, 2024, the Cascade Institute, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), the Research Institute for Sustainability - Helmholtz Centre Potsdam (RIFS), and the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk will co-host scientists from around the world to work together to better understand the growing interconnections between the world’s problems.

Panelists of the session „Democratising economic policy making“ (L-R): Mathias Zachau (Nyt Europa), Lucianajulia Pace (European Commission), Ingeborg Niestroy (Research Institute for Sustainability - Helmholtz Centre Potsdam), Luca Jahier (EESC European Semester Group), Judith Hermann (Forum Environment and Development).

06.03.2024

The EU Horizon project REAL DEAL looks at citizen and stakeholder deliberation for the European Green Deal. One subtask focuses on the European Semester and economic policy, and we are experimenting with formats and approaches for citizen and stakeholder deliberation during the different phases of the European Semester cycle. The preliminary results of these experiments will be presented and discussed in the workshop session.

10.02.2024

REAL DEAL is a community of Europeans who are taking action to build a new model of environmental citizenship for Europe; a model where Europeans are placed at the heart of the decision-making process, making a REAL DEAL for both people and the planet. The In-person Citizens Deliberation Forum, titled 'Towards a European Pact for the Future – Charting the Next Steps in Our Ecological Transition', takes place on Saturday, February 10th, 2024.

26.10.2022

In this symposium we will address broad questions by framing them in the relationship between narratives and collective behavior change toward sustainable futures, which has long been the focus of the project KLASICA.

11.05.2022

At this conference the RECIPES project will present and discuss some of the ideas on how to improve the use of the precautionary principle that were developed in consultation with several stakeholders at various points during the project period (the RECIPES guidance). The final version of the RECIPES guidance will be available in advance of the conference via the project’s website.

22.02.2022 - 23.02.2022

On February 22 and 23, the RECIPES project will organize the European Policy Workshop: “Precaution for responsible innovation”.

02.04.2020 - 03.04.2020

What are the best pathways for sustainable futures? Master in Global Economic Governance & Public Affairs run an international dialogue with researchers of the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS). Better Governance is at the core of major challenges of the 21st century such as Systemic Risks and the Covid19 crises, the Geopolitics of the Energy Transition, Global Digital Economy”.

24.06.2019 - 26.06.2019

This year's annual meeting theme, “Systemic Risks: From Natural Hazards to Cyber Risks” is intended to showcase the wide variety of risk issues that threaten society today. These risk issues can only be addressed by the diversity of experience SRA-E members represent in terms of their professions, disciplines, methodologies, and nationalities.

11.05.2019

Am 11. Mai 2019 findet unter dem Motto "Forschen. Entdecken. Mitmachen" bereits zum siebenten Mal der Potsdamer Tag der Wissenschaften statt. Mehr als 40 Hochschulen, Schulen und Forschungseinrichtungen Brandenburgs werden an diesem Tag auf dem Campus der Fachhochschule Potsdam ihren Arbeitsalltag jenseits der Institutsmauern präsentieren.

09.04.2019 - 10.04.2019

Die Belastung durch Plastik in der Umwelt nimmt stetig zu und erhält zunehmend auch öffentliche Aufmerksamkeit. Mit dem BMBF-Forschungsschwerpunkt „Plastik in der Umwelt“ soll dem immer noch lückenhaften Kenntnisstand entgegengewirkt werden. Die insgesamt 20 Forschungsprojekte mit mehr als 100 beteiligten Institutionen aus Wissenschaft, Wirtschaft und Praxis befassen sich dabei mit ganz unterschiedlichen Aspekten der Problematik von Plastikmüll.

24.01.2019 - 25.01.2019

On January 24 and 25, the kick-off conference for the EU Horizon 2020 project RECIPES takes place at Maastricht University. The RECIPES project will analyse how the precautionary principle is applied in the European Union and improve its future application with recourse to participatory methods. The IASS will lead one of the work packages.

What risks does the use of pesticides present?

20.12.2017

Do the risks associated with pesticide use outweigh their benefits? In the emotionally charged public discourse around this issue, the answer to this question at times seems self-evident. Calls for “zero risk” abound – a goal that is unattainable, even where this complex and controversial topic is concerned. Experts from a range of disciplines discussed risk perception at a workshop in December 2017.