Systemic pathways to desirable futures: options for the marine ecosystem-based management of wicked problems

Managing marine social-ecological systems requires governance strategies that account for uncertainty and conflicting stakeholder preferences. The Systemic Pathways to Desirable Futures (SPDF) framework is a tool for coordinating independent management actions in decentralized governance systems. It combines adaptive pathways metro maps, systems thinking, and ecosystem-based management with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SPDF was applied in Europe, in Macaronesia (focusing on tourism), the Tuscan Archipelago (focusing on tourism and seagrass conservation), and the Arctic Northeast Atlantic Ocean (focusing on pelagic fisheries). Results indicate that every SPDF metro-map navigation involves trade-offs among associated SDGs and that choosing management pathways varies according to different worldviews. Furthermore, a coordinated option, which benefits most from the hierarchy between distinct pathways, reveals Macaronesia would promote SDGs 3, 8, 9, and 14, with trade-off of SDGs 12 and 16; Tuscany promotes SDGs 3, 6, 8 12, and 14 with no trade-offs; the Artic would promote SDGs 8, 14 and 16 with trade-off of SDG 13.