Headline: Deliverable 3.2: Empirical observations of tipping dynamics in a coal phase-out region in Germany: the cases of Essen and Duisburg

In this paper, we investigate the socio-economic transition processes of Essen and Duisburg as part of the wider structural change in the Ruhr Region. In the two case studies, we explore causes and effects of the cities’ development trajectories in the last 30+ years, seeking to identify differences in outcome as a function of the interventions and/or contextual differences. We analyse events, interventions and their impacts on the social and economic systems of the two cities across time. Apart from identifying the key development drivers, we investigate whether either city crossed a tipping point in their transition process (yet), away from coal towards a low-carbon but still prosperous future. Therefore, we specifically evaluate the cities’ development trajectories by seeking evidence for “no”, “incremental” or “radical” changes in a set of indicators. Here, we have taken a long temporal perspective, because trajectories of and trajectory changes in social systems are specifically visible in demographic dynamics, economic structures and political arrangements across time.