Geopolitics, Decarbonisation and the Weaponisation of Energy

As decarbonisation reshapes global energy systems, new asymmetric interdependencies are emerging along cross-border electricity and hydrogen networks, green value chains, critical minerals and clean technology supply chains. Against this background, the project "Geopolitics, Decarbonisation and the Weaponisation of Energy", funded by the German Federal Foreign Office, analyses the geopolitical risks arising from international dependencies in the energy sector and develops concrete strategies for resilience building in the context of Germany's energy transition.

Background

Geopolitically driven interruptions of oil and gas supplies, pipelines deliberately routed to bypass transit states, and disruptions at critical shipping chokepoints are well known examples of how asymmetric dependencies in the fossil energy sector can be weaponised for political gain. As energy and industrial systems decarbonise, this landscape is changing. On the one hand, by reducing reliance on imported hydrocarbons, decarbonisation is increasingly valued for its contribution to energy security and resilience. On the other hand, the energy transition creates vulnerabilities of its own. These arise along clean technology supply chains, from the mining and refining of critical minerals to the manufacture and export of finished technologies, as well as in critical infrastructure such as cross-border electricity grids and planned hydrogen networks. The data flows generated by increasingly electrified and digitalised energy systems, and the technologies needed to process and analyse them, create further risks that can also be exploited.

About the project

The project “Geopolitics, Decarbonisation and the Weaponisation of Energy” examines these shifts systematically. Together with stakeholders from government, industry and civil society, it seeks to develop a framework for mapping risks across selected energy carriers and technologies. Applying this framework, the project will examine how key players turn asymmetric dependencies in the changing energy sector into political leverage, drawing on in-depth case studies of the United States, China and the Arab Gulf states. On this basis, it will assess the risks facing Germany and the European Union and develop a toolbox of short-, medium- and long-term measures to reduce their exposure. The project findings will be published in academic and policy-oriented outlets, and will be discussed with decision-makers in government, business and civil society.