Geoeconomic scenarios of renewable-hydrogen-based industrial production

Renewable hydrogen could have a role in decarbonizing energy-intensive industries and in achieving net-zero economies. The impacts of renewable-hydrogen production and use on industrial value chains and the geography of production are debated, as there is a mismatch between the locations of industrial clusters and potential large-scale production of renewable hydrogen. This Perspective examines the geoeconomic factors affecting the use of renewable hydrogen in industry and discusses the potential impacts on global value chains. We discuss three future scenarios of renewable-hydrogen-based production. In a fuel-switch scenario, renewable hydrogen displaces fossil fuels without major reshaping of industrial value chains, assuming that infrastructure for long-distance hydrogen transport can be deployed. Another scenario is industrial relocation, where industries shift to regions with abundant hydrogen production potential, thus reducing the need for direct hydrogen transport. Finally, a hybrid scenario describes the co-location of hydrogen production and intermediate production, with final production at existing industrial hubs. These scenarios each have geopolitical, environmental and justice implications that require thorough analysis and targeted policy responses to ensure a just hydrogen transition.