Headline: Resource exporter or R&D champion? Leverage points and transition pathways for the Chilean energy sector

The energy transition creates economic opportunities along renewable energy technology value chains. The benefits in terms of local value-added increase from resource extraction to manufacturing and are highest for R&D. Many countries hope to improve their position in renewable energy technology value chains, as they develop green industries and move towards a green knowledge economy. This study investigates which structural factors enable countries to upgrade their position in renewable energy technology value chains, based on Chile as a case study. Using formal scenario analysis, we model complex system dynamics in 31 alternative futures. In doing so, we combine a transdisciplinary approach to data gathering stemming from qualitative interviews and stakeholder focus groups with cross-impact balance (CIB), the formal scenario technique, to identify leverage points and pathways that can guide strategic long-term policies for the Chilean energy sector. We find that isolated policy interventions do not suffice to enable Chile to upgrade its value chain position. Instead, policy interventions need to simultaneously address the electricity market structure and knowledge transfer to trigger system dynamics that enable Chile to transform from a resource exporter to an R&D champion.