Headline: CS5 Quantitative and qualitative analysis of the engagement of stakeholders (D5.23)

Arctic stakeholders are faced with uncertainty as to the future development of social, political, economic, and environmental conditions, not least due to the ongoing transformations inflicted by climate change. In Blue-Action, the case study focusing on “Yamal 2040: Scenarios for the Russian Arctic” (CS5) has employed a specific co-design and engagement methodology to support stakeholders of one particular region in the Arctic, the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (YNAO) in Russia, to respond to this situation of general uncertainty, to develop forward-looking scenarios to better understand the risks and opportunities associated with future transformations in the Arctic. This methodology is the Foresight Exercise. The Foresight Exercise was conducted in the form of a series of three international workshops over 10 months between late 2017 and late 2018. The result thereof were three scenarios for the possible futures of the YNAO, which were co‐designed by stakeholders participating in the workshops and representing environmental NGOs, indigenous peoples’ organisations, business, media, policy‐makers, representatives oflocal communities, and scientists from the natural and social sciences. Results of the workshops were presented in the Blue‐Action deliverables D5.20, D5.21, and D5.22. This present deliverable takes stock of the Foresight Exercise from the perspective of the stakeholder engagement methodology.