Europe Chooses Solar Power and Import Independence

The study draws on data from decision-making experiments in four European countries with energy system models. By combining preference data on how electricity systems should be designed with techno-economic scenarios at national and sub-national level, the new methodology makes it possible to predict which energy system people in Europe would choose. 
"Although energy system models are becoming more sophisticated, more detailed and show how functioning and cost-effective renewable energy systems can be built, they run the risk of generating irrelevant results as they ignore the social factors that constrain and drive on-the-ground development,” explains lead author Tim Tröndle (ETH Zurich). Social scientific studies show how acceptance and opposition develop, but ignore whether the sum of all measures taken to accommodate societal wishes and needs makes the resulting energy system technically and economically infeasible.

Preference for solar power and decentralised energy Systems

"It was interesting, for example, that people tended to favour solar over wind power, even if it wasn't the first choice from a cost perspective," says Professor Johan Lilliestam from the University of Erlangen-Nuremberg. At the same time, Europeans are not only seeking low energy costs, but also a more decentralised energy system with less wind power, more solar energy and fewer imports. The authors argue that this shift has likely been reinforced by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

However, in many places other factors also played a role. "One of these is the concentration of generation and transmission infrastructure, which we can visualise quite accurately thanks to our analysis," explains Tröndle. In the map below, for example, the most cost-effective transmission corridor in Hungary and Romania is depicted in dark blue, however this option is strongly opposed by citizens.

“This shows that integrating citizens’ preferences into energy system modelling can lead to more realistic and socially acceptable results," says study author Franziska Mey from RIFS. The researchers conclude that incorporating social data can fundamentally alter the outcomes of energy modelling, and that political decision-making processes can benefit from such analyses.

1. "Firstly, our study shows that citizens' preferences can be incorporated into energy models, resulting in scenarios that are both technically feasible and socially favoured," says Tröndle. “Political decision-makers should therefore establish procedures in which citizens' preferences - for example through decision-making experiments or representative surveys - are incorporated as input variables in national and regional energy planning tools."
2. Secondly, the study makes it clear that people do not necessarily prefer cost-optimised solutions. This means that political decisions should not be based solely on economic criteria, but must take into account the preferences of the population in order to ensure acceptance and support.

The study is intended to help bridge the gap between technical modelling and social reality by providing the tools that will enable political decision-makers to develop socially viable energy scenarios. This could help to make the transition to a decarbonized electricity supply more democratic, more efficient and less conflictual.

Publication: 
Tim Tröndle, Franziska Mey and Johan Lilliestam: Socially preferable and technically feasible: European citizens choose solar power and import independence over lower Costs, Energy Research & Social Science, Volume 129, November 2025, 104364. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2025.104364