Headline: Competing with Suez and Panama? Outlooks of Arctic Shipping from global and regional perspectives

Under the headline “Arctic Shipping in 2050: A Vision for the Future?” the participants of the second annual Arctic NGO Forum from 16 to 18 October 2013 in Brussels discussed the implications, impacts and potential policy responses on new and increasingly used shipping routes through the Arctic. IASS scientist Dr. Kathrin Keil concluded that “we have to be very careful with grand expectations of globally significant Arctic shipping routes. Regionally, the Arctic will see more traffic, especially on the Eurasian side in Norwegian and Russian Arctic waters, but also here Arctic shipping will remain a niche for certain commodities and economic activities in the region for only a limited time of the year.”

This year’s Arctic NGO Forum put a focus on Arctic Marine Transportation and Shipping. Dr. Keil gave a presentation focusing on the prospects of Arctic shipping, on the specific routes that will likely see increasing Arctic shipping activity in the future, and on the necessary distinction between global and regional prospects and economic viability of Arctic shipping routes. In her opinion, transit voyages between the Pacific and the Atlantic Oceans and vice versa are unlikely to increase to an extent that would rival traditional global trading routes through the Suez and Panama Canals. Rather, Arctic shipping will remain a niche market for certain commodities and economic activities in the region. “The future of Arctic shipping will also depend a lot on the pace and extent of economic activities that will unfold in the region in the next few years, such as oil and gas exploration and exploitation”, forecasts Dr. Keil.

The event took place back-to-back with the International Polar Foundation’s Arctic Futures Symposium on “A Holistic Approach to a Sustainable Arctic.”