Conditional bidirectionality between climate policy acceptance and perceived effectiveness

The causal relationship between climate policy acceptance and perceived effectiveness is contested. Traditional models assume effectiveness perceptions drive acceptance, while alternative accounts suggest the reverse. Additionally, whether general climate policy support moderates how design features affect acceptance is understudied. Factorial survey experiment results on heating sector instruments (N = 2579) hint at conditional bidirectionality. We show that the traditional pathway—where optimistic effectiveness information boosts acceptance via effectiveness perceptions—operates only for general climate policy supporters and the undecided. The alternative path—where acceptance shapes effectiveness perceptions—appears across all groups, including opponents. Instruments with low personal cost and fair design show higher acceptance, which may lead to increased perceived effectiveness. These findings suggest limits to unidirectional models in climate policy research. For policymakers, they imply that, even among opponents, support may be fostered via fairness and limited personal costs, as these factors not only drive acceptance but also contribute to perceptions of policy effectiveness.