Headline: The role of the policy mix in the transition toward a circular forest bioeconomy

Grand societal challenges call for a sustainability transition away from a fossil-based society toward a bioeconomy, in which energy and manufacturing production processes are based on sustainable biological resources. In this context, the forest bioeconomy can play a key role, as it links the entire forest value chain, from the management and use of natural resources to the delivery of products and services. The paper adds to the existing literature on policy mixes, seeking to identify effective policy mixes in support of the European circular forest bioeconomy. To this end, we employ a two-step methodology involving a fuzzy inference simulation, to assess the most suitable policy mixes to promote forest sector development. We considered different scenarios in order to identifying the most suitable policy mix. This analysis of alternatives revealed a number of interesting findings regarding the relative effectiveness of different policy mixes. Strengthening environmental policy resulted to be a precondition for an effective policy mix. According to stakeholder knowledge, the policy mix that performs best in pushing the bio-based forest to evolve in a circular and innovative trajectory, combines “climate mitigation policies” with “sustainable forest management policies,” “R&D policies” and “awareness raising policies.”