Headline: A High Resolution Technology-based Emissions Inventory for Nepal. Present and Future Scenario

A comprehensive regional assessment of emission sources is a major hindrance for a complete understanding of the air quality and for designing appropriate mitigation solutions in Nepal, a landlocked country in foothills of the Himalaya. This study attempts, for the first time, to develop a fine resolution (1km × 1km) present day emission inventory of Nepal with a higher tier approach using our understanding of the currently used technologies, energy consumption used in various energy sectors and its resultant emissions. We estimate present-day emissions of aerosols (BC, OC and PM2.5), trace gases (SO2, CO, NOX and VOC) and greenhouse gases (CO2, N2O and CH4) from non-open burning sources (residential, industry, transport, commercial) and open-burning sources (agriculture and municipal solid waste burning) for the base year 2013. We used methodologies published in literatures, and both primary and secondary data to estimate energy production and consumption in each sector and its sub-sector and associated emissions. Local practices and activity rates are explicitly accounted for energy consumption and dispersed often under-documented emission sources like brick manufacturing, diesel generator sets, mining, stone crushing, solid waste burning and diesel use in farms are considered. Apart from pyrogenic source of CH4 emissions, methanogenic and enteric fermentation sources are also accounted. Region-specific and newly measured country-specific emission factors are used for emission estimates. Activity based proxies are used for spatial and temporal distribution of emissions. Preliminary results suggest that 80% of national energy consumption is in residential sector followed by industry (8%) and transport (7%). More than 90% of the residential energy is supplied by biofuel which needs immediate attention to reduce emissions. Further, the emissions would be compared with other contemporary studies, regional and global datasets and used in the model simulations to understand impacts of air pollution on health and climate in Kathmandu Valley and Nepal. Future emissions are being developed based on different possible growth scenarios and policy interventions to mitigate emissions.